India has taken drastic steps after a deadly attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, killing 26 people. In response, it suspended the Indus Water Treaty (IWT)—a 60-year-old water-sharing agreement with Pakistan. This move has raised fears of a new crisis between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
But what does this mean for both countries? Will Pakistan face water shortages? Could this lead to war? Here’s a simple breakdown of the latest developments
What Happened in Pahalgam?
On April 22, 2025, gunmen attacked tourists in Pahalgam, a popular Kashmir destination. At least 26 people were killed, making it the deadliest attack on civilians in Kashmir in years.
- Who Did It?
- Kashmir police named three suspects, two allegedly from Pakistan.
- A little-known group called “The Resistance Front” claimed responsibility.
- India’s Response:
- PM Narendra Modi vowed to punish the attackers, saying: “We will pursue them to the ends of the earth.”
- India closed the Attari border, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and downgraded ties.
Why Did India Suspend the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, divides control of six rivers between India and Pakistan.
| Key Terms of the Treaty |
| India Controls: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (Eastern Rivers) |
| Pakistan Controls: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab (Western Rivers) |
| World Bank Role: Mediates disputes |
India says it’s suspending the treaty “until Pakistan stops supporting cross-border terrorism.” But experts say:
- Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus River for farming and drinking water.
- India cannot immediately block water—it lacks big dams to divert the flow.
- Legal issues: The treaty has no clause allowing unilateral suspension.
Pakistan’s Reaction: “Water Warfare”
Pakistan’s leaders called India’s move “illegal and irresponsible.”
- Power Minister Awais Leghari said: “This is water warfare. We will fight back legally and globally.”
- Former Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi warned: “Military action would be extremely dangerous.”
- Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) is meeting to decide its next steps.
Will This Lead to War?
Tensions are at their highest since 2019 (when India and Pakistan had air strikes after the Pulwama attack).
- India’s Options:
- More diplomatic pressure (like cutting trade).
- Limited military strikes (like in 2019).
- Pakistan’s Options:
- Take India to the World Bank or UN.
- Retaliate if attacked.
Biggest Risk: If either side miscalculates, it could spiral into a larger conflict.
What Happens Next?
- World Bank’s Role: Pakistan may ask for emergency talks.
- Water Shortages? If India builds more dams, Pakistan could face long-term problems.
- Global Pressure: The US, China, and UN may push for calm.
FAQs (Quick Answers)
Q: What is the Indus Water Treaty?
A: A 1960 agreement dividing six rivers between India and Pakistan, mediated by the World Bank.
Q: Can India legally suspend the treaty?
A: No—the treaty has no exit clause. Pakistan can challenge this at the World Bank.
Q: Will Pakistan run out of water now?
A: Not immediately—India lacks dams to block water fully, but long-term risks exist.
Q: What was the Pahalgam attack?
A: A terrorist strike on tourists in Kashmir, killing 26. India blames Pakistan-backed militants.
Q: Could this lead to India-Pakistan war?
A: Risk is high if military action happens, but both sides may avoid all-out war.
Conclusion: A Dangerous New Crisis
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is a major escalation after the Pahalgam attack. While Pakistan warns of “water warfare,” experts say legal battles and global mediation are more likely than war—for now.
The next few weeks will be critical. Will diplomacy calm tensions, or will the situation worsen? Stay updated as this story develops.
Sources: Reuters, Dawn, Al Jazeera, Indian & Pakistani government statements.
